But I’m not going to let that stop me. Like many of my fellow citizens, I’m a lifelong Oscar addict. As a child, I used to run Oscar betting pools on my grammar school playground. (Thank you for sharing, Dave.) Like all cheap highs, the hunger is as urgent as the experience ultimately proves forgettable. (Quick, who won Best Actress two years ago? You see.) Let’s be clear here: Any illusions that the Academy actually honors the greatest work in cinema can be quickly dispelled by a look back at the record book. “The Greatest Show on Earth”? “Around the World in 80 Days”? “The Sting”? “Braveheart”? Best movies of their years? Don’t think so.
But reading the tea leaves of the Academy Awards can, perhaps, tell us something about the hearts and minds of the folks who churn out the world’s most powerful and profitable fantasies. So here goes … a category-by-category breakdown of the most up-in-the-air Oscar race in years.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Since the show usually starts here, we will too. This is strictly a two-man race. Abandon all hope, Jeff Bridges, Willem Dafoe and Joaquin Phoenix. It’s the veteran Albert Finney, deliciously over the top in “Erin Brockovich” vs. the charismatic newcomer Benicio Del Toro, the heart and soul of “Traffic.” To confuse the issue, both men won Screen Actor’s Guild (SAG) Awards because in that group Del Toro was nominated for Best Actor and trumped both Russell Crowe and Tom Hanks. For beating out the big boys, I give Del Toro the edge. He seems to be Hollywood’s man of the moment.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This may be the tightest race of the night. I could make a good case for any of the contenders winning (well, maybe not Marcia Gay Harden-though she’s the one I’d vote for). Julie Walter’s could win as a well-liked veteran in a juicy role in a movie (“Billy Elliot”) the Academy clearly liked. Frances McDormand’s protective mom in “Almost Famous” has the kind of pop-off-the-screen pizzazz that might have guaranteed her a victory had she not already won for “Fargo.” You could say the same thing about Judi Dench (“Chocolat”) but actors clearly love her: witness her surprise SAG Award win, which automatically puts her among the front runners. But in this category history favors the newcomers (Tatum O’Neal, Anna Paquin), and Kate Hudson has the added advantage of being Hollywood royalty. Her mom (Goldie Hawn) won this award early in her career, and it will be hard for Oscar voters to resist such sentimental symmetry. Hudson by a nose.
BEST ACTRESS
Let’s put it this way, if Julia Roberts acts surprised when they call her name, she should get a second Oscar for best performance at an awards ceremony. Early on there were a few folks who thought Ellen Burstyn could pull off an upset, but whatever sentimental support she has was cancelled out by the audience-punishing “Requiem for a Dream,” not the kind of movie the Academy cozies up to. Laura Linney vaults into the major leagues just by being nominated and, once again, Joan Allen remains an also-ran.
BEST ACTOR
Stay away from this one, bettors. I smell a surprise lurking in the wings, but who? Though I’ll stick with the conventional wisdom and predict a Russell Crowe victory, he’s no shoo-in. Actors in action roles rarely win Oscars-but people remember his great performance last year in “The Insider.” A win for him would be like the Industry’s earliest lifetime achievement award.
There’s a good chance Tom Hanks will win his third–Lord knows he’s a popular guy in Hollywood, and if actors can win the gold for putting on weight (De Niro in “Raging Bull”) Hanks could win for taking it off. But the failure of “Cast Away” to garner any other major nominations makes it more of an uphill battle. Ed Harris (“Pollock”) is well respected by his peers–and actors make up the largest voting block–and long overdue for a win, but since he didn’t even get a SAG nomination, he won’t get an Oscar either.
Geoffrey Rush has already won for “Shine,” and “Quills” is not a fave with the Academy. If there is a big shocker, then, it’s left to wild card Javier Bardem for his wonderful performance in “Before Night Falls.” I keep running into Academy members who are voting for him. It would be unprecedented if he won–he’d be the first Best Actor in the English language whose dialogue nobody understood. I say Hollywood’s long love affair with spectacle gives the nod to “Gladiator.”
BEST PICTURE
Usually at this late stage in the race, the winner in this category is clear to see. The last time there was a surprise was “Braveheart”’s victory in 1995 over “Apollo 13” and Ang Lee’s “Sense and Sensibility.” And if Mel Gibson’s lumbering costume epic tickled the Academy’s fancy, how can they resist “Gladiator,” which is a lot more stylish, fun and resonant. On the other hand, “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” generates the greatest passion of the five contenders. People who love this movie are over the moon about it. And on the other other hand, “Traffic” has an awful lot going for it: a serious subject that’s stirring up real-world debate, critical and commercial success and dazzling filmmaking. Miramax achieved a miracle getting “Chocolat” nominated, but ultimately its just too … vanilla. “Erin Brockovich,” though both serious and highly entertaining, seems to have suffered by comparison with Soderbergh’s later, more ambitious, effort. Whoever wins will win by a hair. I say Hollywood’s long love affair with spectacle gives the nod to “Gladiator.”
BEST DIRECTOR
This usually goes to the director of the Best Picture winner. So by all rights the favorite here should be Ridley Scott. Oddly enough, he isn’t, in spite of the bundles of money he’s made for Hollywood over the years. “Crouching Tiger”’s Ang Lee catapulted into the lead by winning the DGA Award-16 out of the last 18 DGA winners have taken home the Oscar. Still, the twice-nominated Steven Soderbergh remains a powerful threat for “Traffic,” assuming his supporters agree to forego “Erin B.” and consolidate the Soderbergh vote. The buzz in Hollywood says put your money on Lee (who wasn’t even nominated for “Sense and Sensibility.”) Who are we to argue?
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
This category has produced more upsets than any other. The Predicatable Unpredictability of the Foreign-Film Oscar It would be a tremendous shock if anything beat “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” but since so few people vote in this category, and they have to have seen all five films, there is always the potential for a surprise. The most dangerous dark horses are the Czech.
“Divided We Fall” and the French “The Taste of Others,” and the gritty Mexican “Amores Perros” has strong partisans, too. But the safe bet has to be Ang Lee’s swashbuckler, which, if it wins, will be the first Asian film to take home the Oscar since this became a competitive category in 1956.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The best bet of the night: Steve Gaghan’s “Traffic” script. “Chocolat” is dramatically too low-cal. “Crouching Tiger” is too … Taiwanese. “O Brother Where Art Thou” is too Coen Brothers arch, and “Wonder Boys,” which I’d vote for, is too low concept to win anything.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another nail-biter. I’ve changed my mind three times on this one, and may change it again at the last minute. All I know for sure is it won’t be “Gladiator,” whose screenplay is its weakest link (The Academy’s writers’ branch should have nominated “Chicken Run” instead). And it won’t be “Billy Elliot,” which was perceived as a director’s film. At first I thought “Erin Brockovich” would win: It’s the only one of the remaining three contenders that was nominated for Best Picture. But there’s a cloud hanging over Susannah Grant’s nomination. Many people in Hollywood are aware that her sole writing credit was contested by Richard La Gravanese, who lost a Writers Guild arbitration in spite of having written most of the dialogue you hear. Grant has never acknowledged his contribution, and it could hurt her chances. The front runner now is Kenneth Lonergan’s WGA-award-winning “You Can Count on Me,” which is first and foremost a writer’s film. But I have a hunch the boomer voters’ fondness for Cameron Crowe and his autobiographical “Almost Famous” will make him one of the upset winners of the night.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Films about the Holocaust have won in this category in ‘95 (“Anne Frank Remembered”), ‘97 (“The Long Way Home”) and ‘98 (“The Last Days”), and last year’s winner was about the slaughter of the Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics. These were all good films, and so is this year’s moving and understated Holocaust entry, “Into the Arms of Strangers: Stories of the Kindertransport,” made by “The Long Way Home”’s Mark Jonathan Harris. It has to be considered the front runner, unless the Academy feels enough is enough. It’s a strong field, and the toughest competition comes from “Long Night’s Journey Into Day,” a wrenching film about the aftermath of apartheid in South African. And you can’t entirely rule out “Scottsboro: An American Tragedy.”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
One of many technical awards in which “Gladiator” goes mano a mano with “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.” Give the edge here to the Roman epic.
BEST ART DIRECTION
The same run off, and “Gladiator” wins again.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Ditto, except this time “Crouching Tiger” comes out on top. In this category, the Academy has often been fond of Orientalism.
BEST FILM EDITING
This one’s hard to figure. Both the Roman and the Chinese action epics have all the right stuff for a victory, but they face stiff competition from the intertwining tales of “Traffic.” My guess is the structural dexterity of Soderbergh’s movie gives it a narrow win.
BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
What’s interesting about this category is that none of the old-time Hollywood composers have been nominated. (What, no Alan Menken, no Diane Warren?) With the exception of “Crouching Tiger”’s song, all the contenders are singer-songwriters and pop stars: Sting, Randy Newman, Bjork and the unshaven guy who’s going to win, Bob Dylan for “Things Have Changed” from the “Wonder Boys” score.
BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Here’s a real test of Miramax’s Oscar-campaigning wizardry. They have pushed heavily for Ennio Morricone’s “Malena” score, filling the L.A. airwaves with his music and stressing the fact that the esteemed Morricone has never won. It worked for “Il Postino” and “Life is Beautiful,” but this film wasn’t nearly as popular. They could well pull off the upset, but my money is still on Tan Dun and “Crouching Tiger,” which is aided by the prestige of Yo-Yo Ma’s soulful cello playing.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
There are only three nominees: “Gladiator,” “Hollow Man” and “The Perfect Storm.” Bet on the big wave: without the special effects, there was no movie.
BEST MAKEUP
“The Cell” was too twisted for these voters. And “Shadow of a Vampire” was notable only for Willem Dafoe’s wonderfully transformed mug. “How the Grinch Stole Christmas” will probably steal the Oscar, in spite of the fact that you could see the tacky seams where the bulbous Whoville noses were attached to the actors. Frequent winner Rick Baker will win again for transforming Jim Carrey into a green furball. I’ll break the cardinal rule of Oscar forecasting and go with the one I think deserves to win: “Cast Away.”
BEST SOUND
Who the hell knows? I’ll break the cardinal rule of Oscar forecasting and go with the one I think deserves to win: “Cast Away.” It was the sounds of that plane crash that made it so remarkably terrifying. But voters may go with “Gladiator” just because it’s the movie they like the most.
BEST SOUND EDITING
“Space Cowboys” vs. “U-571.” Since the later was also nominated for sound, it wins. Don’t ask why. And don’t ask what sound editing is.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
I’ve seen four of the five nominees, and unless the one I missed-the Mexican “Quiero Ser”-is an irresistible tearjerker (and I hear it’s a contender) the winner will be “One Day Crossing,” a well-crafted black-and-white student film about (what else?) the Holocaust. This category is always a scandal: year after year the best and most innovative short films are never nominated.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Haven’t seen any of them, but I know that “Curtain Call” is about performers at the actors’ old-age home. How could the voters resist? Possible spoiler: “Big Mama.”
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
An interesting test of the Academy’s taste. Will they choose the hilarious but very twisted “Rejected,” which was a hit at Sundance, or the tasteful, artful Belgian “Father and Daughter”? (“The Periwig-Maker” has a Kenneth Branaugh voice-over, but it never comes alive) It’s inspired bad taste vs. restrained good taste. I’m rooting for “Rejected,” but I don’t think a movie that has the phrase “My anus is bleeding!” as one of its punchlines can win over this crowd.
